Scholz Calls for Confidence Vote, in Step Toward German Elections
Dec 11, 2024
Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany called for a confidence vote in Parliament on Wednesday, taking the first formal step toward disbanding the German government and leading to snap elections likely to oust him from office.
The move, culminating in a parliamentary vote on Monday, became all but necessary in November, when the chancellor fired his finance minister, precipitating the breakup of his fragile three-party coalition.
“In a democracy, it is the voters who determine the course of future politics. When they go to the polls, they decide how we will answer the big questions that lie ahead of us,” Mr. Scholz said from the chancellery in Berlin on Wednesday.
Mr. Scholz expects to lose the vote. The collapse of the government along with the early election on Feb. 23 amount to an extraordinary political moment in a country long known for stable governments.
The political turbulence in Germany and the fall last week of the government in France have left the European Union with a vacuum of leadership at critical moment: It is facing challenges from Russia’s war in Ukraine and the imminent return to the presidency of Donald J. Trump in the United States.
Mr. Trump has threatened a trade war with Europe and has consistently expressed skepticism about America’s commitment to the NATO alliance that has been the guarantor of security on the continent for 75 years.
Germany has now become a victim to the same forces of fragmentation that have upset politics in many parts of Europe. When Germans vote in February, they will decide between four mainstream parties and three parties at the political fringes, left and right. The far right in particular has steadily gained support in opinion polls.
For now, the polls show the conservative Christian Democratic Union dominating the race, and most expect its lead candidate, Friedrich Merz, 69, to be the next chancellor.
However, because it is likely that none of the parties will win a majority of the vote, whoever wins the race will have to find at least one coalition partner.
The campaign is expected to be fought around the issues of the sagging German economy and national security. The question of how vigorously to support Ukraine militarily will play a large role, with the Christian Democrats promising to to take a more assertive stance than Mr. Scholz, who has warned of provoking Russia.
Though no party is willing to work with the far-right Alternative for Germany party, its core issue — stopping what it calls uncontrolled migration — will also take a high profile in the campaign, with the conservatives also pushing for harder immigration controls.
“My impression is that the voters also have a great desire for change,” said Jasmin Riedl, a political scientist at the University of the Bundeswehr in Munich, noting the uphill battle for Mr. Scholz.
According to current polling, the center-right Christian Democratic Union has 33 percent support, while Mr. Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats are pulling 16 percent.
The Alternative for Germany, known by its German initials, AfD, is polling at 18 percent and is poised to pick up the most seats in the national Parliament since the party was founded a decade ago.
The Green party is polling at around 13 percent. The pro-business Free Democratic Party, whose ouster from Mr. Scholz’s coalition ultimately spelled the end of it, is polling at four percent, just under the five percent threshold needed to get back into Parliament.
Modern Germany’s Constitution is designed for stability, a result of Germany’s troubled history when 20 coalition governments ruled in the span of 14 years after World War I, eventually ceding power to the Nazi party.
According to the Constitution, only the chancellor can call a confidence vote that lead to snap elections. However, without a majority in Parliament, Mr. Scholz had little choice but to take the step, because he no longer has the power to pass a budget or laws.
Because Parliament is not in session this week, his move on Wednesday was merely a procedural one that ensures the vote gets on the official agenda. In theory, lawmakers now have four days to prepare for a debate and votes; in practice, Germans expect Mr. Scholz to lose the confidence vote and for the government to fall.